Within the next few hours, we will begin to learn whether President Donald Trump’s Republican Party has managed to retain control of the US Congress, determining his ability to advance his legislative agenda during the final two years of his term.
Follow the latest developments in congressional races attracting crypto industry spending, election results and reactions from prediction markets. Cointelegraph is using live election results data from the Associated Press. Updates appear in reverse chronological order.
Nov. 3 at 22:57 ET:
Democrat James Talarico is projected to defeat Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ US Senate race, according to Decision Desk HQ, potentially delivering another Republican-held seat to Democrats.
Paxton received support from the Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund, although both candidates earned A ratings from crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto.
Paxton has called for the passage of the CLARITY Act, arguing that clear regulations are necessary to maintain US competitiveness in digital assets. In a June statement, he said the country must become the “crypto capital of the world” and support innovation and growth.
Talarico has similarly called for clear regulations that protect consumers while allowing innovation. As a Texas state representative, he also voted in 2025 to establish a state strategic Bitcoin reserve, according to legislative records cited by Stand With Crypto.
Nov. 3 at 22:38 ET:
Democrat Annie Andrews has defeated Republican Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina, according to the Associated Press, giving Democrats another pickup.
Andrews’ victory ends more than two decades of Republican control of the seat. The last time South Carolina elected a Democrat to the Senate was in 1998.
Following their victory in North Carolina, Democrats would need two further Republican-held seats to reach a majority, provided they retain all their Democratic-held seats.
Nov. 3 at 22:25 ET:
Decision Desk HQ has projected the Democratic Party to win a majority in the US House of Representatives.
Nov. 3 at 22:02 ET:
Democrats and allied independents stood at 45 Senate seats as of 10:02 pm ET, six short of the 51 needed for a majority.
Their path includes retaining Democratic-held seats in Oregon, Michigan and Minnesota and flipping three additional Republican-held seats. Democrats have already picked up North Carolina.
NBC News has projected that Democrat Annie Andrews will defeat incumbent Republican Senator Darline Graham in South Carolina in a major upset. Associated Press has not yet called this race.
Nov. 3 at 21:21 ET:
Republican Representative Andy Barr has won Kentucky’s US Senate race, sending a supporter of the CLARITY and GENIUS Acts to the upper chamber.
Fairshake-affiliated political action committees spent more than $7 million supporting Barr in the Republican primary. Barr has also introduced legislation aimed at protecting lawful businesses, including crypto firms, from debanking.
Nov. 3 at 21:17 ET:
Democrat Juliana Stratton has won Illinois’ US Senate race, succeeding retiring Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin.
Stratton advanced through the Democratic primary despite substantial opposition from crypto-backed PAC Fairshake, which had spent more than $5.5 million against her by early March.
Nov. 3 at 21:05 ET:
Republican Representative Harriet Hageman has won Wyoming’s US Senate race against Democrat James Byrd, succeeding retiring crypto advocate Senator Cynthia Lummis.
Lummis, who chairs the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, sponsored the BITCOIN Act of 2025 to establish a US strategic Bitcoin reserve and has supported the CLARITY and GENIUS Acts.
Hageman has also backed cryptocurrency legislation, voting to pass the CLARITY and GENIUS Acts in 2025 and the FIT21 market structure bill in 2024. She also cosponsored legislation seeking to prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency, according to Stand With Crypto. The advocacy group lists no documented position on cryptocurrency for Byrd.
Nov. 3 at 21:05 ET:
Kalshi and Polymarket traders now give Democrats a 99% chance of winning Senate control and price House control at nearly 100%. It came as Democrats flipped North Carolina’s Senate seat, while holding Georgia and New Hampshire.
Nov. 3 at 20:08 ET:
Prediction markets increasingly favored Democrats taking control of both chambers of Congress on Tuesday evening.
As of 8:05 pm ET, the Blockchain Association’s election dashboard showed Democratic Senate-control odds at 94% on Kalshi and 93% on Polymarket, up from 75% and 75.5%, respectively, earlier in the day. Democratic House-control odds stood at 98% and 99%.
At the time, Democrats and allied independents have secured 42 Senate seats to Republicans’ 31.
Nov. 3 at 20:01 ET:
Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey and Delaware Senator Chris Coons, both Democrats, win reelection, according to the Associated Press.
Markey voted against the GENIUS stablecoin bill in 2025, while Coons has criticized President Donald Trump’s crypto ventures, calling his latest memecoin-holder event “corruption.”
Nov. 3 at 19:57 ET:
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has won reelection in Georgia, beating Republican Representative Mike Collins.
Ossoff expressed support for impeaching Trump in April 2025 over plans to host a private dinner for top holders of the president’s TRUMP memecoin, arguing that the arrangement amounted to selling access to the presidency.
Nov. 3 at 19:41 ET:
Maylea Ma, deputy general counsel at 1inch, said she expects federal agencies to drive the next phase of crypto regulation.
The election could reshape the path forward for the stalled CLARITY Act, but Ma said “real movement” in US digital-asset regulation over the next few years will come from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Treasury, rather than Congress.
Ma said those agencies were increasingly engaging with crypto projects. However, agency engagement does not provide the stability the industry had hoped to secure through legislation.
“The long-term goal, of course, remains a statute that cannot be reversed every time a government changes,” said Ma.
Nov. 3 at 19:09 ET:
Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz wins Florida’s 20th Congressional District. Wasserman Schultz voted against the CLARITY crypto market structure bill when it passed the House in July 2025.
Nov. 3 at 19:05 ET:
Democratic Senator Mark Warner has won reelection in Virginia, defeating Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa. Warner was widely favored to win.
Warner voted against advancing the CLARITY Act in September, arguing that crypto legislation needs safeguards against President Donald Trump personally benefiting from the industry. Warner supports establishing federal rules for digital assets, with his opposition to the bill focused on its ethics protections.
Nov. 3 at 18:00 ET:
The first polls in the US midterm elections closed at 6 pm ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The remaining polls in both states close at 7 pm ET.
Polls also close at 7 pm ET in Georgia and Virginia, followed by Ohio at 7:30 pm ET, where Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces Democrat Sherrod Brown in a race drawing major crypto industry spending.
Nov. 3 at 11:37 ET:
More than 57 million Americans had cast ballots as of Monday, with early voting surpassing 2022 levels in several closely watched states, according to the Associated Press.
Current balance of power in the US House and Senate. Source: Blockchain Association
In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces Democrat Sherrod Brown, a longtime crypto critic, in a race that has attracted approximately $63 million in crypto industry spending. That includes about $56 million from Fairshake and $7 million from the Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund, with both groups spending to support Husted or oppose Brown.
Crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto characterizes Brown as strongly opposed to cryptocurrency, citing 17 statements and his 2024 vote against overturning the SEC’s SAB 121 crypto custody accounting guidance.
Brown was also targeted by crypto industry spending in 2024, when Fairshake affiliate Defend American Jobs spent more than $40 million supporting Republican Bernie Moreno, who defeated Brown in that year’s Senate election.
Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent challenger Dan Osborn in Nebraska, where crypto political action committee Fairshake had spent nearly $11 million supporting Ricketts, according to an Oct. 27 report by the Washington Examiner.
More recent spending data shows Fairshake-affiliated crypto super PAC Defend American Jobs spent approximately $13.5 million opposing Osborn, according to Federal Election Commission data compiled by Bankrolled as of Nov. 3.
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